Slippery ground of forecasts: 10%, 12% or 15% gap?

We're going to share some rumors. It is hard to come by honest sociology in Ukraine in the wake of presidential elections, so we'll present you the assortment of evaluations, if only to check our sources later on for accuracy. According to pro-Tymoshenko's internal sociology the gap between the candidates will be about 10% in favour of Yanukovich, pro-Yanukovich internal data tells of 12% gap, other "trustable surveys" say that the gap may reach 13-15%. 

We assume that there’s significant probability that Tymoshenko will try to delegitimize second election round. The gap of at least 10% makes it difficult for Tymoshenko to fight for the third round, but even if it is scheduled a miracle is needed for Tymoshenko to win.

Short-term risks for Ukrainian economy still remain high due to increased propensity to resort to radical moves by the two major political groups. Examples are the assault on Ukraina printing house (where voting ballots are printed), Party of Region’s attempts to dismiss the head of police loyal to Tymoshenko, and PoR's pressure on Central administrative court.
 

In case of prolonged political standoff there are risks for the National bank of Ukraine and the whole banking system. Deposits outflow is probable, as well as grivna devaluation pressure and sharp rise of prices for certain food products.

At the same time, we do not forecast the situation to get as radical as it was during the 2004 Orange Revolution.