“Guess NBU rate” game

During last days, the Ukrainian FX market continued to be guided by the NBU. National Bank of Ukraine changed its behavior and begun to enter the market at the end of the day instead of the morning. Thus, market players are now playing the game “let’s guess what the NBU’s intervention rate for today will be”, experts of Astrum Investment Management say.

They maintain their view that the NBU will not go far with its exchange rate adjustments, as it continues to pursue its de facto fixed exchange rate policy.

At the same time, the NBU will need to show some degree of “fluctuations” to the IMF, as the Fund does not favor a fixed rate policy. Thus, further “cosmetic” exchange rate adjustments are possible. During the last week, the hryvnia gained less than 0.2% against the dollar.