The consensus forecast of economic growth was improved due to accelerating consumption (+0.4 percentage points compared with the forecast of December 2009) and investment (+0,6 percentage points). Among the sectors, the best expected dynamics is for the the industry (6.8%) and transport (6%). The most dynamic industries in 2010 promise to be mechanical engineering (11.3%) and steel (+10%).
The participants of the forecast improved their outlook for employment. Expected unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 8,5% among people 15-70 years old (the methodology of the ILO). At the same time, the expected growth of real incomes of the population remains at that level of 2% (while some have predicted the fall of this index).
Analysts and research institutions, banks and other financial institutions have kept the average forecast exchange rate at 8.20 UAH / USD. (range of forecasts narrowed to 7,80-8,80).
Forecasts of inflation are sharply volatile. Average growth of CPI (December to December) was 13,3%, despite the fact that the maximum projection of one of the participants reached 20%. Prices of industrial producers will grow faster than the consumer, that is clearly associated with an acceleration in the industry.
Forecasting budgetary performance remains a matter of great difficulty for the participants because of lack of information about the actual state of the treasury. The outlook on the state of public finances has provided only half of participants.
In 2010, the deficit of public finances ranges from 4,4% to 9,8% of GDP. The main source of deficit is external borrowing. Participants of the consensus forecast also believe that the capitalization of banks may require from 10 to 25 billion hryvnia public funds this year.
The data for the current wave of the consensus forecast was provided by Astrum Investment Management, Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital, Erste Bank, FOREX Club, Gainsfort Research, OTP Bank, BTA Bank, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, International Bleyzer Fund, Ukrainian business magazine "Expert", investment group "Socrat", International Center for Policy Studies.
The results of the consensus forecast (average, minimum and maximum difference between the minimum and maximum values, the number of forecasts for each parameter), as well as assumptions that guided the participants in forecasting, attached to this release. Information about prognosis in the context of each participant is closed, since 6 out of 13 participants were asked not to disclose details of their forecasts.
Consensus forecast project is conducted by Expert business magazine.
If you want some additional info regarding macroeconomic or sectoral forecasts for Ukraine in 2010 please contact Igor Lutsenko (ilutsenko at gmail.com).
Indicator | Scale | Average | Median | Min | Max | delta | Number of forecasts | |
Nominal GDP | Bln UAH | 1 069,0 | 1 078,0 | 916,0 | 1 150,0 | 26% | 13 | |
Change in real GDP | % | 3,8 | 4,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 200% | 13 | |
Change in real consumption, including: | % | 1,7 | 1,9 | -2,2 | 4,0 | 282% | 10 | |
private | % | 2,1 | 2,4 | -1,8 | 4,0 | 322% | 10 | |
public | % | 0,3 | 1,0 | -3,9 | 3,6 | 192% | 9 | |
Changes in real investment | % | 8,3 | 8,6 | 4,0 | a15,0 | 275% | 12 | |
Growth rate of value added in industry, including: | % | 7,2 | 6,8 | 5,0 | 9,5 | 90% | 11 | |
mining | % | 4,8 | 5,0 | 2,0 | 11,0 | 450% | 9 | |
food industry | % | 2,1 | 3,0 | -4,9 | 5,0 | 202% | 8 | |
chemical and petrochemical industry | % | 7,7 | 5,0 | 0,0 | 25,0 | — | 8 | |
machine building | % | 14,8 | 11,3 | 6,0 | 30,0 | 400% | 8 | |
metallurgy | % | 10,7 | 10,0 | 6,0 | 16,8 | 180% | 8 | |
Growth rate of value added in trade | % | 5,8 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 10,0 | 233% | 9 | |
Growth rate of value added in construction | % | 7,1 | 5,5 | 2,0 | 15,0 | 650% | 10 | |
Growth rate of value added in transport | % | 5,2 | 6,0 | 1,0 | 8,0 | 700% | 9 | |
Growth rate of value added in agriculture | % | 0,3 | 0,3 | -3,5 | 3,6 | 203% | 10 | |
Level of unemployment (ILO methodology, the citizens of working age), the economically active population | % | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,0 | 9,0 | 13% | 3 | |
Unemployment rate (by ILO methodology, among citizens 15-70 years old), the economically active population | % | 8,6 | 8,5 | 8,0 | 9,5 | 19% | 9 | |
Change in real disposable income | % | 1,4 | 2,0 | -2,0 | 4,0 | 300% | 11 | |
GDP deflator (annual average) | % | 13,7 | 14,0 | 9,5 | 18,0 | 89% | 11 | |
Prices | ||||||||
Consumer price index (annual average) | % | 12,6 | 12,9 | 8,2 | 15,4 | 88% | 12 | |
Consumer price index (December to December) | % | 13,6 | 13,3 | 9,5 | 20,0 | 111% | 12 | |
Producer Price Index (annual average) | % | 14,6 | 14,3 | 9,9 | 18,7 | 89% | 11 | |
Producer price index (December to December) | % | 13,9 | 13,7 | 10,0 | 19,5 | 95% | 11 | |
External Sector | ||||||||
Current Account | Bln USD | 0,1 | 0,0 | -1,5 | 1,7 | 213% | 13 | |
Current Account | % GDP | 0,1 | 0,0 | -1,0 | 1,3 | 230% | 13 | |
Exports of goods and services | Bln USD | 62,7 | 62,7 | 57,7 | 68,0 | 18% | 10 | |
Exports of goods and services | % GDP | 47,9 | 48,1 | 44,9 | 50,9 | 13% | 10 | |
The volume of imports of goods and services | Bln USD | 64,3 | 64,0 | 58,3 | 72,0 | 23% | 10 | |
The volume of imports of goods and services | % GDP | 49,1 | 49,0 | 45,8 | 52,3 | 14% | 10 | |
The balance of capital account and financial transactions | Bln USD | -1,0 | -0,8 | -8,5 | 4,0 | 147% | 12 | |
The balance of capital account and financial transactions | % GDP | -0,8 | -0,6 | -6,8 | 3,1 | 146% | 12 | |
FDI | Bln USD | 5,6 | 5,6 | 4,0 | 8,0 | 100% | 12 | |
FDI | % GDP | 4,3 | 4,1 | 3,1 | 6,1 | 97% | 12 | |
The price of oil - Urals (at year end) | USD/barr | 82,7 | 82,0 | 80,0 | 90,0 | 13% | 7 | |
The price of oil - Urals (average per year) | USD/barr | 76,2 | 75,0 | 70,0 | 80,0 | 14% | 10 | |
Price of imported natural gas (at the border of Russia, Ukraine, the average per year) | USD/1000 cubic m | 313,7 | 317,0 | 280,0 | 330,0 | 18% | 10 | |
Money and credit | ||||||||
Exchange rate (end of year) | UAH-USD | 8,20 | 8,16 | 7,50 | 9,00 | 20% | 12 | |
Exchange rate (annual average) | UAH-USD | 8,17 | 8,20 | 7,80 | 8,80 | 13% | 13 | |
Exchange rate (end of year) | USD-EUR | 1,36 | 1,40 | 1,10 | 1,55 | 41% | 8 | |
Exchange rate (annual average) | USD-EUR | 1,39 | 1,40 | 1,25 | 1,55 | 24% | 8 | |
International reserves of the NBU | Bln USD | 26,0 | 25,8 | 21,7 | 33,0 | 52% | 12 | |
Changing the nominal monetary base | % | 14,2 | 12,8 | 9,0 | 25,0 | 178% | 11 | |
Changing the nominal money supply | % | 16,6 | 15,0 | 12,0 | 27,0 | 125% | 11 | |
PFTS Index (end of year) | Points | 850,5 | 851,0 | 800,0 | 900,0 | 13% | 4 | |
Index of Ukrainian shares (at year end) | Points | 2 159 | 2 192 | 2 000 | 2 250 | 13% | 4 | |
Budget | ||||||||
Consolidated Budget Revenues | Bln UAH | 306,7 | 311,5 | 281,0 | 322,5 | 15% | 6 | |
Consolidated Budget Revenues | % GDP | 28,6 | 28,8 | 25,6 | 30,2 | 18% | 6 | |
Consolidated Budget Expenditures | Bln UAH | 355,3 | 352,8 | 332,0 | 388,1 | 17% | 6 | |
Consolidated Budget Expenditures | % GDP | 33,1 | 33,5 | 30,1 | 35,5 | 18% | 6 | |
The overall balance of consolidated budget (including the Pension Fund, taking into account the recapitalization) | Bln UAH | -79,4 | -85,0 | -99,5 | -52,0 | 48% | 7 | |
The overall balance of consolidated budget (including the Pension Fund, taking into account the recapitalization) | % GDP | -7,3 | -7,4 | -9,8 | -4,4 | 55% | 7 | |
Income from external public borrowing | Bln USD | 3,8 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 6,3 | — | 7 | |
Income from domestic public borrowing | Bln UAH | 23,3 | 25,0 | 8,0 | 36,0 | 350% | 7 | |
Proceeds from privatization | Bln UAH | 6,8 | 8,0 | 2,0 | 12,0 | 500% | 7 | |
The amount of funds allocated for recapitalization of banks | Bln UAH | 17,5 | 17,5 | 10,0 | 25,0 | 150% | 4 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment