30 billions to pay in 2010

According to Sigma Bleyzer fund leading analyst Oleg Ustenko, government and private Ukrainian entities have to repay from 20 to 30 billions USD to their foreign lenders during the current year.




Surely large part of this amount will undergo restructuring. Nevertheless the remaining part will create significant devaluation pressure on grivna. Considering that each month National Bank of Ukraine lets the government take USD 500-600 mln from NBU's foreign currency reserves, we expect that Ukrainian currency will loose part of its value in 2010.

Despite the fact that experts do not foresee significant current account deficit in this year, capital account may be the source of negative shock. Debt pressure is one of the main risks in 2010. Roughly speaking, total Ukrainian debt is now almost equal to GDP.