Post-election redistribution of property: is it coming?

Presidential elections in Ukraine will stop the times of duality in Ukrainian power. The conflict between Orange revolution leaders Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko are over whatever the result of the election. It is likely that early parliamentary and local elections will cement the victory of a presidential winner, whoever it will be. Once the power gets consolidated in the hands of one political camp the question is - will the other camp suffer or rather how exactly will it suffer.

Certainly, many bureaucrats will lose their positions due to elections (more in case of Yanukovich victory, provided YuliaTymoshenko already controls Cabinet of Ministers and is rather influential with many courts). But it is likely that some property is also destined to change hands. Many oligarchic businesses were built on shaky ground of discretionary bureaucratic decisions with respect to licenses, permits, access to monopolistic markets etc. Those kinds of businesses are likely to suffer after the president gets settled in his or her seat.

One of the likely targets in case of the Tymoshenko win will be Mr. Firtash, who has already lost his intermediary business in gas trade between Russia and Ukraine and is now trying to defend remnants of his business empire. Today OstChem Ukraine publishes a press-release that its stake in Crimean Titan enterprise is under threat due to government's decisions, which may lead to raider attack. Other likely targets of the second round of re-privatization may be in Mr. Pinchuk's business empire.

After Orange revolution Yuliya Tymoshenko has initiated reprivatization process, which came to a halt after a loud sale of Kryvorizhstal' plant to Arcelor Mittal. Kryvorizhstal' was privatized by a consortium of Viktor Pinchuk and Rinat Akhmetov for fraction of the market price.

In case Viktor Yanukovich wins property redistribution may also be likely, but it is less probable, provided his camp has suffered from it in 2005 and ardently protested any kinds of privatization revision. However, being the victim of the process in opposition is one thing - it is much harder to stay away from it once the opportunity is there.