Presidential elections: interim reflections

Elections were fair and free. There were not many mechanisms for fraud in the electoral law this time, because both camps of the front runners were not sure that they can exert enough influence to control these mechanisms to their own benefit.

Big surprise was the amount of votes that a relatively "new" face of Sergei Tigipko won - 13%. Former NBU Head and ex-Vice-Prime Minister refuses to ask his voters to support one of the candidates, making a bet on their support during local elections in May 2010 (perhaps coinciding with early parliamentary elections). However, his refusal to support other candidates may be due to his electoral base being relatively new. That is it may not be likely to follow Tigipko's call to support one of the front-runners, but will only deem Mr. Tigipko to be a technical candidate thus reducing trust in him. That in turn can diminish his future May success on local elections.

Certainly, Ms Tymoshenko, one of the front-runners, who loses about 10% to Mr Yanukovich, is in a difficult position. Her chances of victory are slim. One of the interesting scenarios for her would be to step down from electoral battle and to ask her supporters to vote for Mr. Tigipko, thus making him a winner. That would make Tigipko a president, remove Mr Yanukovich from the playing field as well as preserve Yulia Tymoshenko as a Prime Minister of the country - a post that might be prefereable to weak presidential office.  That scenario is just one of the many and is not very likely, but... a really interesting one.

Second round of elections is expected on February 7 with a new president stepping into the office by March 29 should everything go on schedule. It is interesting to note lack of published polls predicting who the victor of the second round may be under different scenarios and what turnout to expect.